LPA TO FORM WITHIN THE WEEK OVER NORTHERN LUZON

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) is monitoring the possible formation of a low pressure area (LPA) within the week, that may occur somewhere over Northern Luzon either Thursday or Friday.

The state-run weather agency said the country could expect generally fair weather all throughout the day except for isolated downpours in the late afternoon or at night. It added that the easterlies - winds coming from the east that pass through the Pacific Ocean that carry humid, warm weather, have been prevailing in most parts of the archipelago.

La Niña may onset between September and November, while an LPA may form in Northern Luzon this week (Photo courtesy of Rappler) 

"With the southwest monsoon or 'habagat' temporarily weakening, the easterlies are bringing isolated rain showers or thunderstorms particularly over the eastern sections of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.”

Furthermore, Pagasa said that around four to seven tropical cyclones will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the last three months of 2024, which are expected on October: 2 to 3, November: 1 or 2, and December: 1 or 2. 

So far, nine tropical cyclones have either formed inside or entered PAR this year. It also said that Tropical cyclones usually traverse either Luzon or Visayas between October and December. 

And a high chance that the La Niña phenomenon in the country could begin between September and November. “La Niña is favored to emerge in September, October, and November 2024. Anytime within the period with a 71% chance and we’re expecting it to persist until first quarter of 2025 or during January, February, and March.”

The La Niña phenomenon is when there is a cooling of the sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Which occurs every two to three years and its duration usually lasts for one to three years.

The impacts of La Niña are intensified winds and more rainfall. “An active weather system can be a rain-bearing tropical cyclone, so even if the wind is not strong, there is a lot of rain or it can be a Super Typhoon but still bring heavy rain.”

“We need to emphasize that, historically, according to PAGASA data, there are more Super Typhoon category storms during a weak La Niña in September, October, November, and December. So we have two similar conditions where there is a weak La Niña but there are 3 to 4 storms that could fall under the typhoon and super typhoon category,” it added.

Source: GMA Integrated News 

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