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LA NIÑA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LAST UNTIL APRIL – PAGASA

ImHenyo Writer
M
Jessica
2025.01.23
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The country is still under La Niña conditions which has a 59% chance that it will last until April bringing higher chances of above normal rainfall (Photo courtesy of ABS-CBN News)

 

The Philippines remains under a La Niña alert, with weak La Niña conditions likely to persist until the February-March-April season according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

 

The state weather bureau said there is a 59% chance for La Niña conditions until April with weak and short typhoons also likely to occur in the coming months. “A weak, short-lived La Niña is likely to occur, at least until the February-March-April season.”

 

It also pointed out that under a La Niña alert, higher chances of above normal rainfall is expected in the country which may cause floods and rain-induced landslides.

 

Current Pagasa forecasts, however, suggest that the La Niña episode will only last for three overlapping seasons. The three overlapping three-month periods are as follows: December-January-February, January-February-March, and February-March-April.

 

“It must remain at -0.5 degrees Celsius or below for at least five overlapping three-month periods, but our forecast indicates it will only last for three. That is why a La Niña advisory is not issued, but a La Niña alert is appropriate.”

 

Despite the short-lived and weak nature of the La Niña, Pagasa Assistant Weather Services chief Ana Liza Solis warned that it could still bring above-normal rainfall to the country.

 

“This condition increases the likelihood of having above-normal rainfall conditions, which could lead to potential adverse impacts such as heavy rainfall, floods, flash floods, and rain-induced landslides over highly vulnerable areas.”

 

La Niña is described as the lowering of temperatures or cooling of the central and eastern portions of the Pacific Ocean. But in the Philippines and in the Western Pacific, the La Niña causes heat in the oceans that brings above normal rainfall.

 

Meanwhile, the shear line affects the eastern portion of southern Luzon. And the Northeast Monsoon or Amihan is making an impact in central and northern Luzon. Forecast showed that portions of Cagayan Valley Region, Cordillera, Aurora, Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao will experience rains. 

 

Heavy to intense rains, which may trigger landslides, are also possible, the report said. However, there’s a slim chance for rain in Metro Manila.

 

 

Source: Philippine Daily Inquirer

 

 

 

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